Massive Quake May Hit Delhi In Near Future, Warn Experts

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“Delhi's current seismic behaviour is very similar to the one in Gujarat a few years ago. A massive temblor had killed over 25,000 people in that state in 2001,” they cite a British study about city’s weather scenario.

The spate of as many 10 minor quakes, ranging from 1.6 to 3 on the Richter scale in the past month, is suggestive of a probable large one in the near future, pointed out Jitender Pal, a project officer with the Disaster Risk Management Programme of New Delhi.

Pal explains: "Earthquakes are generally caused by the movement of plates under the earth's surface."

Delhi, a city of 15 million, is located barely 300 km away from the Himalayas, placing it under risk. However, the risk is doubled as the area is covered by soft alluvial soil, he said, adding: "Contributing to this risk factor is Delhi's saline underground water that makes buildings more susceptible to quake action.

"All the foundations of the city's buildings have white patches. This is due to slow corrosion by saline water activity. The buildings on the ridge areas of southwest Delhi are not in too much of danger," Pal said, adding: "But the high rises in east Delhi near the Yamuna river are under terrible risk as they lack provisions for being quake-resistant. These buildings act like inverted pendulums during a quake."

It is worth mentioning here that a study by Carla Jones for the Centre for Seismic Studies,Britain, says Delhi's current seismic behaviour is very similar to the one in Gujarat a few years ago. A massive temblor had killed over 25,000 people in that state in 2001.

Even satellite mappings are pointing towards unusual seismic activity in the area, Jones says. The net effect can be way more devastating than even a nuclear bomb, she says.

Under the circumstances, should the Delhiites leave the city and evacuate immediately? "It depends," says Jones. "But if you have nothing to do in Delhi, avoid the area for a few months."

Pal said: "The Government has identified all the 'lifeline' buildings of Delhi such as government buildings, hospitals and telephone exchanges. We are doing a structure assessment of these buildings and have started the groundwork to perform 'retrofitting' on these buildings."

Retrofitting is a process that binds buildings firmly to the ground. It also identifies the weak spots and sets up columns to support them.

"But the biggest problem we face is unauthorised constructions. We cannot impose any conditions on these. The only remedy is to sensitise the general public about the risk and advise them on taking precautions."

The Disaster Risk Management programme, which has been working for the past few months to help minimise the impact of quakes, has been set up by the Delhi Disaster Management Authority jointly operated by the Delhi government and the UNDP.